The Bitcoin price has been on a breathtaking run in 2025, carving out new milestones and forcing traders to recalibrate expectations almost weekly. Yet even in a powerful bull cycle, sharp retracements are part of the landscape. This week, global bank Standard Chartered—one of the most closely watched institutional voices in crypto—warned that a pullback to the six-figure threshold is not just possible.
“inevitable,” framing a slide to around $100,000 as a likely waystation before the next surge. The bank’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, reiterated that any dip below six figures could be brief and, in his view, potentially the last chance to buy Bitcoin sub-$100K before the cycle’s next advance.
What Standard Chartered means by an “inevitable dip”
A tactical reset, not a thesis change
Kendrick’s language has been crisp: he sees a temporary breakdown below $100,000 as a setup for the “next leg higher.” This is consistent with prior research from the bank during 2024–2025, when it lifted medium-term targets following the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising institutional participation. Importantly, the current call is not a capitulation on the cycle; it’s a short-term, market-structure view that price often needs to test liquidity pockets and reset leverage before trend continuation.
Why $100,000 matters technically and psychologically
Round numbers act like magnets in markets. The Bitcoin price has repeatedly treated big figures—$20K, $50K, $100K—as zones where stops cluster and option dealers rebalance. A brief flush below $100K would wash out late leverage, refill bids from higher-timeframe buyers, and realign derivatives funding. Standard Chartered’s framing suggests the path of maximum frustration for bears and bulls alike: a sharp wick below six figures, followed by a strong reversal as deeper pockets step in.
The market backdrop: where Bitcoin stands now
From local highs to a controlled pullback
As of late October 2025, Bitcoin has been consolidating after peaking earlier in the month above $120,000 and then easing toward the low $100Ks. Coverage this week cited a price near $108,000 with a 24-hour decline and noted the bank’s sub-$100K warning, situating the call in an actively volatile tape. That context matters: this is not a bearish macro thesis; it’s a remark about near-term downside within an uptrend.
Big-picture targets remain elevated.
Even as Standard Chartered warns of a near-term dip, the bank’s cycle targets—raised multiple times over 2024–2025—remain far above $100,000, with prior notes referencing ranges from $150,000 to $200,000+ depending on ETF flows and macro conditions. That tension—short-term caution, long-term optimism—is exactly what you’d expect in a maturing digital asset market integrating with traditional finance.
Why a sub-$100K move could be healthy
Liquidity hunts clear the runway
In trending markets, price often dives into high-liquidity zones to harvest stops. When the Bitcoin price spikes quickly, the market can get crowded with momentum longs and elevated funding. A fast purge below $100K would reset positioning, reduce liquidation risk, and rebuild a sturdier base. Standard Chartered’s “inevitable dip” language implies that structural buyers—larger funds, corporate treasuries, and ETF allocators—may welcome the opportunity.
ETF flows and the “patient bid”
Since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs debuted, they’ve functioned as an on-ramp for allocators who prefer regulated wrappers. While daily flows ebb and flow, the patient’s bid from retirement platforms, multi-asset funds, and wealth channels grows over time. Pullbacks give these buyers better entries, smoothing volatility across the cycle. This is part of why a dip can be constructive rather than catastrophic. (For context on how ETFs altered bank models for Bitcoin’s fair value and cycle peaks, see prior Standard Chartered notes and related coverage.)
Macro drivers that could force the test of $100,000
Policy and geopolitics
Kendrick has linked recent softness to renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, which cascaded into broader risk-off across equities and crypto. Trade policy, tariff headlines, and currency moves can quickly tighten financial conditions, hitting growth assets first. If stress lingers, a sweep below $100K is the path of least resistance before markets recalibrate
Rates, liquidity, and the dollar
The Bitcoin price is sensitive to real rates and dollar liquidity. A stronger dollar and upward pressure on long-end yields often weigh on risk assets, including BTC. If the next macro print strengthens the case for tighter policy or markets price in fewer cuts, crypto could extend its drawdown just long enough to tag that six-figure liquidity pocket.
Tech-led spillovers
Standard Chartered has previously flagged the growing correlation with tech. When mega-cap tech corrects—on earnings, regulation, or AI cycle pauses—crypto market beta often overreacts. A tech wobble can become the “excuse” for a swift Bitcoin liquidation, even if the full fundamental picture hasn’t changed.
On-chain and derivatives signals to watch
Spot vs. futures balance
If the pullback accelerates while perpetual funding stays positive and open interest remains elevated, there’s likely more leverage to unwind. Conversely, as funding normalizes and basis compresses, it signals cleaner positioning—often a precursor to bottoming.
Exchange reserves and stablecoin flows
Rising exchange reserves during a sell-off can indicate supply overhang, while stablecoin inflows to exchanges sometimes precede buy-the-dip behavior. Watching stablecoin issuance trends alongside ETF creations/redemptions provides a clearer lens into demand elasticity.
Options skews and dealer positioning
Negative 25-delta skew in near-dated maturities, combined with heavy put open interest near $100K, can act as a short-term gravity well. But once that area is tested, dealers may need to buy spot to rebalance, helping fuel a V-shaped rebound. This is the classic setup behind “wick and rip” price action.
How traders can navigate an “inevitable” retest
Define your timeframe first
A common mistake is mixing horizons. If you trade intraday momentum, you’ll manage risk around microstructure and funding. If you’re a swing trader, you’ll focus on daily levels, liquidity sweeps, and RSI resets. Long-term allocators, meanwhile, view dips in terms of allocation discipline, not chart noise. Deciding what you are—trader or investor—comes before any plan for a sub-$100K test.
Build conditional plans around levels, not feelings.
Identify your invalidations and triggers. For example, if price wicks into $98K–$100K on spiking volume and swiftly reclaims $100K on the same candle or session, that’s a classic failure-breakdown and potential long trigger. If instead Bitcoin loses $100K, consolidates below, and funding flips negative while open interest bleeds, the market may be forming a range where patience and staged bids make more sense.
Respect velocity: the first touch is different
The first expedition below $100K in a cycle can produce fast, reflexive bounces. Later retests lose shock value and often extend longer. Trade size and stop placement should reflect that asymmetry. Fast breaks demand pre-planned entries and exits; slow grinds require emotional stamina and position sizing discipline.
How long-term investors can think about the dip
Dollar-cost averaging with “adaptive cadence”
A straightforward way to handle “inevitable” volatility is DCA—but with adaptive cadence. Maintain a base schedule, then temporarily accelerate contributions during 10%–20% drawdowns or when price pierces pre-defined bands (e.g., a weekly Bollinger lower band). This keeps the plan systematic while taking advantage of stress.
Thesis checkpoints, not price targets
Long-term investors should track thesis inputs rather than obsess over levels: sustained ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, regulatory clarity around stablecoins, and continued hash rate resilience post-halving. If those inputs remain intact, a dip—inevitable or not—is a time arbitrage gift.
Tax-aware rebalancing
For investors in jurisdictions where it applies, sharp dips can be opportunities for tax-loss harvesting in related crypto exposures or for rebalancing overgrown allocations (e.g., Bitcoin miners, exchange stocks) back into spot BTC. Always consult a professional, but the principle stands: use volatility to improve after-tax outcomes.
Why Standard Chartered’s call matters (and what it doesn’t mean)
Institutional framing shapes flows
When a top-tier bank frames a dip as “inevitable,” it influences how multi-asset desks, wealth channels, and corporate finance teams prepare. Dealers may pre-position hedges around $100K, and PMs may line up limit orders just below. That creates the liquidity geometry that often makes these calls self-fulfilling—at least temporarily.
This is not a macro rug-pull
Read beyond the headline. The bank’s analysts have, over many months, expressed a constructive stance on the cycle’s destination, even as they expect turbulence along the way. The latest language underscores tactical caution, not strategic reversal. The difference is crucial for anyone tempted to panic-sell into a vacuum.
See More: Bitcoin Price Prediction Institutions & Retail See $130K Soon
Catalysts that could end the dip quickly
Renewed ETF creations and pension channels
Should spot Bitcoin ETF creations re-accelerate—particularly from advisory platforms and pensions now through their due diligence cycles—the market can absorb a $100K break in a matter of sessions. That mechanism has repeatedly truncated drawdowns in 2025.
Corporate treasury headlines
A fresh wave of public-company treasury allocation—even small—can have an outsized signaling impact because it speaks to board-level confidence. These headlines often arrive when volatility is peaking, helping flip the narrative from fear to FOMO.
Macro relief: dollar cool-off or benign policy
A softer DXY or a dovish tilt in forward guidance can ease the pressure valve across risk assets. Crypto’s reflexivity means a dollar down-tick can become a trend ignition event once positioning is clean.
Risk factors that could extend the drawdown
Regulatory surprises
Even with improving clarity, a surprise enforcement move, adverse tax proposal, or stablecoin disruption could keep Bitcoin under $100K longer than a quick wick. The keyword is surprise; markets price what they can see but stumble on what they can’t.
Liquidity fractures in altcoins
Stress often starts at the edges. If altcoin liquidity fractures—due to exchange issues or cascading DeFi liquidations—Bitcoin can suffer collateral damage as funds de-risk broadly.
Macro shock
A shock event—geopolitical escalation, an unexpected bank failure, or a disorderly move in rates—can turn a tidy liquidity sweep into a deeper risk-off episode. This is why position sizing and contingency plans matter more than any single price target.
Strategy blueprint: turning an “inevitable dip” into an edge
For active traders
If you’re trading the Bitcoin price tactically, consider laddered bids just below $100K with tight invalidations and an eye on derivative metrics. Combine tape reading—volume spikes, order book absorption—with an alert for swift $100K reclaim signals. Avoid revenge-trading if the first attempt fails; let the structure rebuild.
For long-term allocators
If your horizon is measured in years, draft rules now: a baseline DCA, plus a “drawdown boost” when Bitcoin closes a day or week below a threshold you’ve defined. Tie your plan to thesis metrics—ETF inflows, corporate adoption, on-chain settlement growth—so you act on fundamentals, not fear.
For diversified crypto portfolios
Map your beta. If you hold miners, exchanges, or high-beta Layer-1 tokens, a $100K flush can hit them harder. Pre-plan rotations: trimming peripheral risk into strength so you can add core BTC into weakness. Professional allocators do this unemotionally. You can, too.
The narrative arc: from “inevitable dip” to inevitable learning
Markets teach in one language: volatility. The difference between losing and learning is whether you treat volatility as noise or information. Standard Chartered’s call doesn’t give you a crystal ball; it gives you a scenario to prepare for—technically plausible, macro-coherent, and statistically consistent with Bitcoin’s history of whipsaws on the way to higher ground. If you’ve pre-written your playbook, a tag of $100K is just another line in a logbook, not an emotional event.
Conclusion
Standard Chartered’s warning that the Bitcoin price faces an “inevitable” dip to $100,000 is best understood as a tactical insight inside a structurally bullish cycle. A fast sweep below six figures would clear leverage, refuel higher-timeframe bids, and potentially mark the last sub-$100K opportunity of this bull phase—exactly the kind of liquidity hunt that strong markets use to refresh.
Whether you’re trading or investing, the answer isn’t prediction; it’s preparation. Define timeframes. Pre-plan levels. Align actions with thesis inputs like ETF adoption and macro liquidity. Do that, and an “inevitable dip” becomes an inevitable edge.
FAQs
Q: Did Standard Chartered turn bearish on Bitcoin?
No. The bank’s note emphasizes a short-term dip below $100K as likely, while maintaining a constructive medium-term outlook premised on institutional adoption and ETF dynamics. It’s a call about the path, not the destination.
Q: Why might Bitcoin drop to $100,000 if the cycle is bullish?
Powerful trends still correct. A move to $100K would reset leverage, fill large liquidity pools, and satisfy options and stop-loss clustering around a major round number—often the springboard for trend continuation.
Q: Could this be the last time Bitcoin trades below $100K?
That’s the bank’s suggestion—“potentially the last chance” below six figures this cycle—but markets don’t offer guarantees. Treat it as a scenario, not certainty, and manage risk accordingly.
Q: What signals would confirm a bottom if we break $100K?
Look for a swift reclaim of $100K after a high-volume wick, normalization in funding rates, declining open interest, and improving ETF creation trends. These often coincide with V-shaped recoveries.
Q: How should long-term investors respond?
If your thesis is intact—expanding spot Bitcoin ETF adoption, institutional inflows, macro liquidity not deteriorating—then systematic DCA and occasional drawdown boosts are rational. Pre-commit to rules so volatility becomes a feature, not a bug.
